Keywords
Climate change
Lutzomyia
Leishmaniasis
MaxEnt
Sandflies
How to Cite
Abstract
Leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem in different parts of the world. It is known that the effects of climate change has been increasing in recent years by habitat changing of sandflies the short and long term what can impact the transmission of leishmaniasis. In the current work evaluates the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of sandflies transmitters of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Merida Venezuela. The analysis includes 4 species, Lutzomyia youngi, L. gomezi, L. ovallesi and L. walkeri using an atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3 under the premise of climate change in a pessimistic scenario A2 with projections for 2020, 2050 and 2080. Results predicted an increased in distribution of L. youngi, while for L. gomezi changes in its future potential distribution. L. ovallesi was the species most affected presented changes at future distribution and distribution of L. walkeri not affected by climate change. In addition, the model in a climate change scenario predicts an overlap of the main transmitter species in the municipalities of greater population density, suggesting an increased risk of transmission of leishmaniasis in Merida state in the coming years, the maps generated provide information relevant to understanding of the transmission of leishmaniasis and to authorities in control and prevention.References
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